{"id":44942,"date":"2025-09-14T11:08:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-14T11:08:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/isafespend.com\/?p=44942"},"modified":"2025-09-14T11:08:05","modified_gmt":"2025-09-14T11:08:05","slug":"if-youre-never-wrong-youre-not-trying-hard-enough","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/isafespend.com\/?p=44942","title":{"rendered":"If You\u2019re Never Wrong, You\u2019re Not Trying Hard Enough"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>One of the wiser, more experienced financial advisors I have the pleasure of working with mentioned something to me this week that I had to stop and write down so that I could share it with you:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI like to be wrong, because that means I\u2019m learning.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He substantiated his claim by telling me how he chooses to read books and articles, and listen to podcasts and interviews, that are in direct opposition to his current opinions, both to reinforce <em>and challenge<\/em> his thinking. <\/p>\n<p>If this sounds foreign to you, it\u2019s because it doesn\u2019t come naturally. We\u2019re actually prone to quite the opposite of this behavior. You may have heard, for example, of the <em data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/timmaurer\/2024\/03\/24\/break-the-cycle-how-your-beliefs-can-block-or-unlock-financial-success\/\">confirmation bias<\/em>\u2014the idea that we, as humans, tend to subconsciously seek information that will confirm the opinion we already hold, while filtering out that which might challenge our pre-existing positions. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed\">Why Are We So Afraid Of Being Wrong?<\/h2>\n<p>We simply don\u2019t like to be wrong. It threatens our credibility and creates a vulnerability within and exposes us to potential embarrassment without.   <\/p>\n<p>It is important to note that most of our apparent human bugs are also, in some way, features. Even confirmation bias. For example, if all we did was go through our days questioning every assumption that has built itself into our worldviews, we\u2019d suffer from analysis paralysis, and rarely <em>do<\/em> anything. So, perhaps the discipline to be applied here is the practice of regularly choosing to test our assumptions.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, before we take a glance at four commonly held assumptions in the arena of personal finance that may be worth reconsidering, let\u2019s offer a simple method for safely testing our assumptions that we can use in any area of life or work.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed\">The 3-Step Assumption Test<\/h2>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed\">1. Name It<\/h3>\n<p>Identify and clearly state the assumption you\u2019re making. \u201cAll Pittsburgh Steelers fans are annoying,\u201d for example, may feel substantiated when you see someone in head-to-toe black and gold long after football season. \ud83d\ude0a <\/p>\n<p>But unexamined assumptions like this often lead to poor thinking and bad decisions\u2014and maybe even unnecessary arguments.<em> <\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Status-quo bias is a powerful force that threatens to render us just another confirmatory voice in a one-dimensional echo chamber.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed\">2. Flip It<\/h3>\n<p>Stress-test your assumption by asking: <em>What if my assumption is wrong, either wholly or partially? What evidence supports or challenges the opposing belief? <\/em><\/p>\n<p>More seriously on this point, one example the \u201cI like to be wrong\u201d advisor gave me was his exploration of the work of Nietzsche, a philosopher whom he foreknew held firm beliefs that were in direct opposition to his well-established worldview. But he read him anyway, and while the foundation of his worldview didn\u2019t crumble, he did pick up some new insights that he\u2019d never have received if he rejected the writer\u2019s influence completely. <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>This step counters confirmation and overconfidence biases; it makes us more malleable and adept thinkers and more approachable collaborators.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed\">3. Test It<\/h3>\n<p>Run a small, low-stakes experiment to see how the assumption holds up in practice. Don\u2019t allow your lightbulb moment to fall short of genuine illumination\u2014put your revised assumption to the test. <\/p>\n<p>For example, my wife and I just explored a challenging notion related to marriage\u2014that we each bring an (often) unspoken collection of <em>hopes, dreams, and desires<\/em> to any relationship, and that without even knowing it, those silent aspirations tend to manifest as an insurmountable wall of <em>expectations<\/em> that no partner could ever crest. We were invited to test this assumption simply by asking our spouse, \u201cWhat is in your hopes, dreams, and desires \u2018box\u2019\u201d? <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>The Bayesian updating theorem<\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:\"> <\/em><em>provides us with an actual formula for testing and updating prior assumptions based on new information\u2026which is a fancy way of saying we should adjust our beliefs as new information comes in.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now let\u2019s take this 3-step test for a spin in the world of personal finance, where a handful of common assumptions are worth putting under the microscope.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed\">(Re)Testing 4 Common Financial Planning Assumptions<\/h2>\n<p>As we often do, we\u2019ll use a fourfold mental model to navigate our way through the financial landscape:<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed\">GROW<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Common Assumption:<\/strong> \u201cThe best investments are the ones with the highest past returns.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><strong>Supporting Biases:<\/strong> Recency bias and performance chasing tend to lead investors to simultaneously overweight recent returns and expect trends to continue.<\/p>\n<p>Sure, you\u2019ve likely heard the disclaimer that \u201cpast performance is no indicator of future results,\u201d but I still bet when you looked at your 401(k) options, you ran your finger all the way over to the right to prioritize the investments with the highest returns.<\/p>\n<p>And while past performance absolutely should be <em>part<\/em> of any thorough investment analysis, the fact remains that every individual stock, mutual fund, or ETF has its own set of goals\u2014and they may be different from yours. <\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed\">PROTECT<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Common Assumption:<\/strong> \u201cInsurance is wasted money if I don\u2019t use it.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><strong>Supporting Biases:<\/strong> The theory of loss aversion, first enumerated by Daniel Kahneman, helps explain why we tend to experience the pain of paying insurance premiums more acutely than the (invisible) relief of avoiding a catastrophic loss.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve been trained, especially in the financial realm, to think about the ROI (Return On Investment) of everything we do, but this logic breaks down when considering insurance. While some insurance products do provide an ROI in various forms, the primary purpose of most insurance is to <em>transfer risk<\/em>\u2014to <em>not lose<\/em> money, rather than to make it.<\/p>\n<p>For example, it\u2019s true that only 2% of term life insurance policies ever pay claims\u2014but that\u2019s good news, friend, because <em>it means you didn\u2019t die<\/em>!<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed\">GIVE<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Common Assumption:<\/strong> \u201cI\u2019ll start giving once I\u2019ve accumulated more.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><strong>Supporting Biases:<\/strong> <em>Impact bias<\/em> is the tendency to overestimate both the intensity and the duration of our emotional reactions to future events\u2014positive or negative. In other words, we think outcomes will affect us more, and for longer, than they often do.<\/p>\n<p>One of the best lessons my father taught me was that \u201cIf you don\u2019t start giving when the dollars are small, you\u2019ll be even less likely to give when the dollars are bigger.\u201d But the amazing\u2014and truly confounding\u2014thing about giving is that the benefits aren\u2019t only for those who would label themselves \u201ccharitable\u201d or \u201cphilanthropic,\u201d and giving also tends to benefit the giver, just as it does the recipient. <\/p>\n<p>Dr. Daniel Crosby even goes so far as to suggest that \u201cGiving Is The Path To Abundance.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed\">LIVE<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Common Assumption:<\/strong> \u201cSave now, live later.\u201d <\/p>\n<p><strong>Supporting Biases:<\/strong> Thanks to the present bias and our tendency toward hyperbolic discounting, we tend to discount the future heavily while paradoxically also deferring joy to \u201csomeday.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Some of the most prominent voices in personal finance sound like a broken record, elevating deferred gratification to one of the 10 Commandments. And while it\u2019s absolutely true that we must discipline ourselves to invest in our future sustenance early and often, we must balance our dedication with another truism: Tomorrow is promised for none of us, and enjoyment in the present is no less of a moral imperative than saving for the future.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Everything within us prefers to be right. However, if you\u2019re willing to name, flip, and test your assumptions, you\u2019ll probably find yourself wrong more often than you\u2019d like. But that\u2019s also how we learn, and it\u2019s how wealth\u2014financial and otherwise\u2014really grows.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/timmaurer\/2025\/09\/14\/if-youre-never-wrong-youre-not-trying-hard-enough\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" rel=\"nofollow\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the wiser, more experienced financial advisors I have the pleasure of working with mentioned something to me this week that I had to stop and write down so that I could share it with you: \u201cI like to be wrong, because that means I\u2019m learning.\u201d He substantiated his claim by telling me how<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44943,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[55],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-44942","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-retirement"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.12 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>If You\u2019re Never Wrong, You\u2019re Not Trying Hard Enough | iSafeSpend<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"One of the wiser, more experienced financial advisors I have the pleasure of working with mentioned something to me this week that I had to stop and write\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/isafespend.com\/?p=44942\" \/>\n<meta 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