It’s undeniable that we’ve now reached summer’s proverbial “dog days.” Some families have headed back to school already, while others have yet to head out on vacation. These and other factors have put consumer behavior at the forefront of my mind for this installment of The Spending Breakdown.
On July 18, the U.S. Census Bureau released retail numbers for both June and the first half of 2023. June included potential spending events, like Father’s Day, Juneteenth, and school graduations. It also presented a handful of weekend days for consumers to load up for barbecues and other summer-inspired gatherings.
So, how did retailers and consumers fare this time around? Let’s take a closer look.
In the June Consumer Tracker by TD Cowen, John Blackledge and team, who surveyed 2,500 consumers about their sentiments. Consumers gave factors such as a recession and resumption of student loan payments plenty of consideration. “Data suggests that a decreasing number of consumers expect that a recession will arise within the next six months,” wrote the team. Meanwhile, 62% of consumers within that bucket who had student loans reported plans to cut their budget to make payments when they resume this fall.
Chip West, a retail and consumer expert at Vericast, made similar observations about the wary consumer. It turns out, the wary consumer didn’t show up as expected. “By now this year, analysts presumed that shoppers would be reducing overall spending due to the heavy weight of inflation,” he wrote. “While there has been understandable pullback with some discretionary purchases, it has not been as drastic as some have predicted.”
The potential for less financial shock overall is good news. However, Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, cautioned, “What’s slightly concerning, however, is the fact that as inflation drops, spend on more discretionary goods is not picking up. Consumers are far from depressed, but neither are they in a celebratory mood.”
Overall spending came in at $689.5 billion, up from $688.2 billion in May and $679.3 billion in June 2022. Within the individual categories, some decreased slightly, despite overall total spend numbers being up. Building materials and garden supply stores, for instance, declined to $41.4 billion from $41.9 billion in May. Collectively, consumers spent $253.2 billion on this sector from January to June. Food and beverages also declined, totaling $81.2 billion, down from $81.8 billion in May. Consumers spent $481.2 billion on food and beverages over the past six months. Gasoline stations also declined. Consumers spent $72.3 billion in June, down from $72.4 billion in May. When comparing June results, this sector is down year-over-year compared to $67.9 billion in June 2022. From January to June, consumers spent $320.4 billion at gasoline stations.
Stronger spend categories in June included vehicle and parts dealers, which rose to $133.2 billion from $132.7 billion in May. Home furnishings etched up to $11.2 billion from $11.1 billion and clothing rose to $25.8 billion from $25.7 billion. Meanwhile, health and personal care declined to $35.5 billion from $35.6 billion and general merchandise slumped to $72.3 billion from $72.4 billion.
Consumers also dined out a little more in June, reaching $88.9 billion, up from $88.8 billion in May. Consumers spent $529.5 billion on food and drinking establishments for the first half of the year.
Regarding discretionary spend going forward, West remarked that student loan repayment will affect retail overall. Notably, it implies that 17% of the population will have “less discretionary income as they make payments,” he wrote.
“Retailers should consider taking creative measures to entice millennials—who comprise the largest segment of furniture buyers and student loan holders—to spend on discretionary items,” he added.
With some retailers also reporting in with quarterly earnings, the elusive consumer remains a mystery this summer. Despite the elusiveness, one thing is for sure: back-to-school and campus are two major spend fuelers I will be watching. Similarly, I wonder about the potential for the clothing sector to make a slightly bigger “comeback” of sorts as more workers in the U.S. partake in the return to office.
We can expect July numbers from the Census Bureau on August 15 and the TD Cowen update closer to the end of the month.
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