Summer isn’t over yet, but many families are looking ahead to the start of the school year—and they aren’t liking what they see: Two-thirds of shoppers say they’re noticing higher prices on student supplies this year, according to the National Retail Federation.
In addition to driving sales, retailers count on back-to-school to create momentum for the holiday season. This year, the question for companies is whether parents will shrink their shopping lists in the face of higher prices and tighter budgets.
Industry forecasts don’t provide much clarity. The NRF is estimating that back-to-school shopping will hit a record $41.5 billion, up from $36.9 billion last year. Deloitte, for its part, sees a more modest year: Its annual survey found that households plan to spend $597 per child, 10% less than in 2022—the first time since 2014 that the survey has indicated a spending pullback.
This is just the latest muddy prediction to stymie retailers, as consumer health and the economy writ large have repeatedly defied gloomy expectations in 2023. But there is something that the NRF and Deloitte agree on: Shoppers are going to be price-sensitive. For back-to-school, that means hunting for deals, couponing, and buying more private-label products. That’s good news for discounters and for mass merchants such as
Walmart,
Costco,
and
Target,
which are able to compete on price and convenience.
Last Week
Markets
Major stock indexes rose on Monday, led by a 400-point rally for the
Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Stocks lost ground on Tuesday after Moody’s downgraded 10 regional banks. China shook markets Wednesday with falling consumer prices and a sharp decline in exports. Stocks edged lower but rose on Thursday as U.S. consumer prices cooled in July. On the week, the Dow eked out a 0.6% gain, the
S&P 500
was off 0.3%, and the
Nasdaq Composite
was down 1.9%.
Companies
Eli Lilly
beat Wall Street estimates on sales of its diabetes treatment Mounjaro, sending the drugmaker’s stock higher. UPS cut its financial outlook for the year; Wall Street sees rising costs following a new labor agreement. The White House will restrict U.S. investment in high-tech Chinese industries such as quantum computing, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.
Deals
Disney
-owned ESPN agreed to a $2 billion deal with
Penn Entertainment
to license its sports-media brand for the gambling company’s sports-betting app…Private-equity giant
KKR
is buying publishing house Simon & Schuster for $1.62 billion in cash. A U.S. court blocked an earlier bid by rival Penguin Random House on concerns over a shrinking publishing market…Tapestry, the owner of Coach and Kate Spade, acquired
Capri Holdings,
the parent of Versace and Michael Kors, for $8.5 billion in cash. Analysts view the U.S. company as being better able to compete against luxury competitors in Europe.
Next Week
Tuesday 8/15
Some of the largest retailers announce results and provide insight into the state of American consumers.
Home Depot
releases earnings before the market open on Tuesday, with
Target
and
TJX
Cos. on deck for Wednesday.
Ross Stores
and
Walmart
round out the week on Thursday.
The Census Bureau releases retail sales data for July. Consensus estimate is for spending to rise 0.4% month over month following a 0.2% increase in June. Resilient consumers have powered the economy this year in the face of a contracting manufacturing sector.
Wednesday 8/16
The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes of its late-July monetary-policy meeting. The FOMC raised the federal funds rates at that meeting by a quarter of a percentage point to 5.25%-5.50%, which the majority of traders expect to be the last interest-rate hike for this cycle.
Thursday 8/17
The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for July. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month decline. The LEI has fallen for 15 straight months, and the Conference Board still expects a recession later this year.
Write to Sabrina Escobar at sabrina.escobar@barrons.com
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