The market will likely rise this week but fall in the next.

September has been the weakest month of any year. The coming week is OPEX (options expiration week). This week has been up slightly since 1985. Most of the strength is early in the week; the gains tend to evaporate late in the week. However, the next week is post-OPEX week (18^th through the 22^nd) which is close enough to the most bearish week in any year, September 19-26, up only 34% of the time. The bears will likely be happiest in the last half of this month.

It appears too risky to buy stocks in this week. The viable strategies are to sell short in anticipation of the weak second half, or to look out to October for buy candidates.

Adobe
ADBE
falls in the latter category. The stock will likely be a buy on the 25^th of this month. Here is why. The annual low point in September falls in the days around the 24^th. This is followed by October, which has been a strong month for the share price. The stock has risen 70% of the time for an average gain of almost 6%. Both the weekly and the monthly cycles rise in October, so this boosts the odds over 70%. The $580-$600 area is a reasonable objective.

Adobe-Daily, Weekly, Monthly

Adobe Monthly Histogram

Red: Probability of a Rise

Blue: Average Price Change

Green: Expected Return

Ford is in the former bearish category. It is one of the weakest stocks in September, up only 25.6% of the time in this month. As with the S&P, Ford is bearish in the second half, down 70% of the time. Relative strength is already falling, having just hit a new low. This is one of the lower-rated stocks in the S&P 500. Ford could lose another 10% by month’s end.

Ford-Daily, Weekly, Monthly

Ford-Daily Histogram

Red: Probability of a Rise

Blue: Average Price Change

Green: Expected Return