The September market weakness is being played out. The election year cycle and the decennial cycle both suggest that the fourth quarter will be strong.
Apple
AAPL
has been a highly seasonal stock in the autumn as we can see in the monthly histogram of expected return. September has been the weakest month and is followed by October, the strongest month. Apple has closed September at a lower price 67% of the time, but the stock has risen over 70% of the time in October. If price has fallen in September, the likelihood of a strong October has been 75%. Here is a closer breakdown. From October 3rd through December 7th, the share price has risen almost 70% of the time for an average gain of over 13%.
The monthly dynamic cycle bottoms in October. There have been two buy signals in the last year and both have been successful.
The market weakness may not have concluded. Defer purchase until the first week in October.
Apple Monthly Histogram
Apple Monthly Cycle
Apple Daily
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