The October 12-13 time period is a projected turning point. This period was thought to be a low, but it now appears to be the high of this short-term rally. Looking out to the latter part of the month, October 27th has been the annual low in any year. And, the last week in this month brings a low in the composite cycle composed of the one-, four-, and ten-year cycles. The DJIA has tended to rally in Q4 even in pre-election year and in years ending in three.
As to strategy, short sales are best expected to be considered short-term. Investors can also look out to the latter part of the month and buy stocks for the fourth quarter. Apple
AAPL
Walgreen Boots reports on the 12th before the market opens. The very short-term cycle indications are not positive for the stock. The stock is overbought daily and relative strength is weak across all time frames. From the 9th to November 2nd, the stock has fallen 60% of the time. Note that the daily cycle has been correct on sell signals in 7 of 8 cases and is a day away from a top. The coming earnings report will likely be met with selling. The shares are likely to hit a new low at $20 or lower.
Walgreen-Boots Daily
Walgreen-Boots Weekly
Walgreen Daily Cycle
Let us look at the Apple recommendation from late last month. The stock is at about the same price. Relative strength has been rising since September 12th. Momentum is forming a series of higher lows, both are constructive developments. The shares have risen in October more than 70% of the time. Below we see the daily histogram of expected return. The stock is in a strong time interval. Higher prices to $190 are likely over the short term.
Apple Daily
Apple Average Price Behavior in October
Read the full article here
