As House Republicans keep fighting over who to elect as speaker, GOP Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota is currently viewed as having the best chances of scoring the position.
Emmer, the No. 3 House Republican, has a 23% chance of becoming speaker as of Monday, according to one betting market, Smarkets.
Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, whose speaker bid flopped last week, and Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, the temporary speaker, are both at around 15%, followed by Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma at 11%.
That’s illustrated in the chart below.
Smarkets
Betting markets were wrong about last year’s midterm elections, however, and can be poor predictors for several reasons. The clientele can get caught up in narratives, one expert in political gambling and prediction markets told MarketWatch after the 2022 midterms.
Among the nine House Republicans who met a Sunday deadline to declare their runs for speaker, Emmer is the highest-ranking lawmaker. He is the majority whip, which puts him in charge of rounding up votes and makes him part of the House GOP leadership.
Emmer is also known to be an advocate for the cryptocurrency industry. He serves as one of the co-chairs of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus.
The Minnesota congressman was among the House Republicans who tore into Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler during a hearing in April over the regulatory agency’s approach toward digital assets
BTCUSD,
“Existing SEC rules make no sense for blockchain-based companies, and following them would actually kill these businesses,” Emmer said at that hearing. “Your regulatory style lacks flexibility and nuance and as a result, you’ve been an incompetent cop on the beat, doing nothing to protect everyday Americans.”
Who are the other speaker candidates — and when will a vote be held?
Emmer and Hern — who chairs the Republican Study Committee, an influential conservative group of House GOP lawmakers — are among the nine declared speaker candidates, but Jordan and McHenry are not, even though some bettors appear to like their prospects.
Jordan had been the House GOP’s speaker nominee until Friday, when he was dropped after the Republican opposition to him grew to 25 lawmakers in a third round of voting for speaker on the House floor, up from 22 in the second ballot and 20 in the first ballot.
As the Republican-run House has looked rudderless, meanwhile, McHenry has drawn calls to take on the speaker job more permanently. It has been about three weeks since the historic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican.
The other declared GOP candidates for speaker are Rep. Jack Bergman of Michigan, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Rep. Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, Rep. Gary Palmer of Alabama, Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia and Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas. The candidates were named Sunday in a post on social media by Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the No. 4 House Republican.
The candidates are slated to make their pitches to their fellow House Republicans in a forum on Monday evening. House GOP lawmakers are then expected to select their nominee in a secret ballot on Tuesday morning.
U.S. stocks
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DJIA
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were higher Monday as traders tracked the 10-year Treasury yield’s
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flirtation with the psychologically important 5% level. Traders also are facing a crucial week for corporate earnings reports and are monitoring efforts to contain the Israel-Hamas war.
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