House Majority Whip Tom Emmer arrives for a meeting of the Republican caucus in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 12.
Anna Rose Layden/Bloomberg
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is now the clear front-runner to become the next House speaker. The crypto industry could hardly ask for a better outcome. But even if Emmer takes the gavel—by no means certain—there is still reason to doubt major crypto legislation can become law soon.
Of course, it isn’t clear that any member, including Emmer (R., Minn.), has the votes to become speaker. Emmer announced his candidacy on Saturday and quickly picked up the endorsement of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.). In addition to Emmer, there were at least eight other candidates for the job as of Monday morning. The GOP is planning to hold votes on who will be their speaker nominee as soon as Tuesday.
For the crypto sector, Emmer would be an ideal choice. In addition to his whip duties, Emmer is a co-chair of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus and has sponsored crypto-friendly bills. He speaks to the industry frequently and often advocates for crypto as a potential economic driver for the U.S., saying it is akin to the internet boom and shouldn’t be choked by regulation.
“Rep. Emmer is one of the ‘OGs’ of crypto legislation dating back to 2017,” said Blockchain Association government relations director Ron Hammond in a post on X on Monday.
Spokespeople for Emmer didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The potential speakership comes as the industry is lobbying hard in favor of legislation that would partially shield it from oversight by securities regulators. The bills, already advanced by the House Financial Services Committee, would set up rules for trading platforms and stablecoins, a type of coin backed by reserves and generally pegged to $1. Proponents have hoped the bills could come to a House floor vote as soon as this year.
Perhaps the only other potential speaker that has excited the industry as much as Emmer is the current temporary leader Patrick McHenry (R., N.C.), who chairs the House Financial Services Committee and who some lawmakers have said should be granted temporary expanded powers. McHenry also spearheaded the crypto-friendly bills awaiting a floor vote.
Spokespeople for McHenry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
But no matter whether Emmer, McHenry or some other candidate ends up with the speakership for the longer term, investors shouldn’t expect industry-friendly legislation to pass soon.
For one, even after getting power, whoever is speaker will immediately need to turn to more pressing needs. Avoiding a government shutdown and potential aid packages to Ukraine and Israel rank far above crypto on Congress’s to-do list.
Even if crypto-friendly legislation can come to a vote on the House floor next year, it is likely to be more of a symbolic gesture, says Beacon Policy Advisors analyst Owen Tedford. That is because while House committees have been eager to advance crypto legislation, the Senate Banking Committee hasn’t engaged in a corresponding process.
“There’s just way too much to get done before getting to crypto,” Tedford said.
Many senators have also grown more skeptical about crypto. Earlier this month, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) and Roger Marshall (R., Kans.) were among the lead signatories of a letter to the Biden administration asking officials to crack down on crypto’s usage by Hamas and other terrorist organizations. Warren and Marshall are trying to get their own crypto legislation—focused on coins’ use in illicit finance—passed into law.
Anti-money-laundering crypto provisions seem uncontroversial enough that they could get attached to a must-pass spending bill this year, Tedford said, but that would be far from the crypto-promoting bills that the industry has been seeking.
In the near term, any speaker candidate’s policy positions are almost beside the point as the GOP tries to hold itself together. “You need someone who can pull them together more than you need someone who can win on policy,” Tedford said.
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