Is the sharp Friday slide in Trade Desk Inc. shares a buying opportunity — or a sign to be wary of advertising-exposed names this holiday season?
Analysts were divided in the wake of the ad-technology company’s September-quarter earnings report, which brought a significantly weaker-than-expected outlook. The guidance miss was uncharacteristic for Trade Desk, which has only come up short with its revenue forecast one other time in the past five years, according to FactSet data.
The company found numerous defenders within the bull camp, with Evercore ISI’s Shweta Khajuria cheering a potential “buying opportunity for investors who have waited for a more reasonable entry point.”
“We do not believe the company is facing any meaningful structural or fundamental challenges (take rate compression or share loss),” she wrote in a note to clients. “Management noted that starting in the second week of October, [Trade Desk] began to see cautiousness across advertisers in some verticals such as auto, consumer electronics, and [media and entertainment], which seems to be ‘transitory’ and since the first week of November the company has seen spend ‘stabilize.’”
She has an outperform rating and $65 target price on the stock, which is off 16% in Friday trading.
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Needham’s Laura Martin similarly highlighted a chance for investors to buy the dip.
“Since [Trade Desk] typically overdelivers its guidance, and [fourth-quarter] fundamentals do not threaten [Trade Desks’s] winner-take-most strategic position, deep moats or its pricing power, we are buyers on weakness,” she wrote. “For investors who ‘missed’ [Trade Desk], today you can buy the ad-tech industry leader at a discount.”
She rates the stock a buy with a $100 target price.
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RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew Swanson also maintained his optimism. “We appreciate the conservatism into year-end and remain bullish on the long-term strategic growth opportunity,” he wrote, while sticking with an outperform rating but cutting his target price to $90 from $100.
Others expressed more caution.
“Though [Trade Desk] has seen stabilization in spend trends and is cautiously optimistic about the outlook, we worry that there could be additional budget cuts ahead,” Jefferies analyst James Heaney wrote, as he kept his hold rating on the stock and cut his price target to $60 from $80.
Andrew Marok of Raymond James echoed the sentiment.
“While the company sees a relatively lower risk of incremental caution in [the fourth quarter], the current state of the market led the company to take a conservative tack,” he wrote.
In addition, “given lofty expectations and the company’s track record of success, small speed bumps like the [fourth-quarter] guide come with greater consequences,” Marok noted, while sticking with his market-perform stance.
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